Midterm Elections: Predictions, Pitfalls, and Ideology.

In the comings months, the US Midterm elections will occur and offer a glimpse of the future to the 2012 Presidential election. Moreover, it also provides us with an understanding of the political tendencies of Americans--or at least those who vote. Each midterm election cycle usually holds well for the Congressional party that is in control. Most of the success in midterm elections come from the Incumbency and Coattails Theory. Where the incumbent has a 90 percent chance of re-election. The Coattails Theory, which is similar, says that the a group--usually Congressional or Senate members during an election will ride on the skirts of the success of the President's win of an election. However, in two simple cases, that failed, the Republican control of Congress in 1994 and the Democratic control of Congress in 2006.

The political climate in America is a new breed of politics. With the rise of the "Tea Party Movement" and fall of Democratic trust, it has caused many voters to re-examine their priorities. When Barrack Obama won control of the Presidency, his likability and favor-ability were in an all time high for an incoming President. However, his troubles began with the continuation of the Bush Bailout program. So what is in store for the 2010 midterm elections?

It starts with the rise of the Tea Party candidates. These candidates, espousing themes of the Republican party, are attempting to rebrand the whole conservative movement. In essence, they are seemingly going to redefine the political ideology and possibly move one of the major parties into "third-party" status. Yet, philosophically, what are the majority of Tea Party constituents? The major claim, in political ideological spectrum, is that they tend to lean closer to Libertarian ideals and similar to anarchist and classical liberalism. As such, libertarianism is closely founded upon the non-statist and classical liberalist sense in that the father of said political ideal is Joseph Déjacque. Granted, philosophical ideology has changed since this began. Moreover, the nature of the Tea Party not only supplants themes of decrease of government, reduction of taxation, spurring the growth of middle class businesses, but to provide the certain restraints on the government itself; e.g. PATRIOT Act,

The political activists, and actors, such as Rand Paul of Kentucky and Sarah Palin of Alaska are somewhat bandwagoning. The US Sente race in Kentucky is a prime example of how the Tea Party movement will motivate the independent and somewhat righter-than-Republican electorate. In many aspects, the Tea Party is expected to gain much, but this may be short lived. The climate and organization of the Tea Party is thinly organized and loosely structured. Without such a control or mechanism to keep their operations moving, the Tea Party Movement will spiral into a self destructing machine.

Secondly, the fall of Democrats is the next issue. The Democratic control of Congress (2006-present) is seemingly faltering, with a Rasmussen Report stating that 2% margin, America wants Republicans to counter a Democratic President (Trust on Issues, 2010). In a more worrisome report by Rasmussen, an article shows that the partisan trend is now the smallest gap in five years, with Democrats holding 35% and Republicans holding 33.8%. In more effect, the major problem is several fold. The Presiential election garnered a higher-than-usual expectations. With the removal of Republican control and it's "Conservative Control" over the nation, the Democrats had a near perfect chance to maximize on it. They, as several people contend--one such is a good friend, that the Democrats began in the wrong direction. They chose to agitate the wrong crowd. If, as my friend suggested, the Democrats had picked issues that may not have been so controversial or poignant, the solidification of their base and leadership would still hold, leaving Republican establishment wondering when they will fall. So, their greatest problem in current American political culture, is themselves. They have backed themselves into a corner with no way for anyone, anything, not even God made, to get them out of the serious problem.

Furthermore, the Republican base and electorate is expected to gain seats from Democrats, in that, the Rasmussen Poll showed that the political leanings are slightly moving toward the Republican ere. Democrats, unlike the past, must move to the center, they must shy away from their far-left leaning constituents, just as Republicans must move away from far-right constituents. It would be imperative for both parties to maximize their strategic campaigns to mobilize and capture the Independent voter base.

Finally, the Republicans must also be watchful of issues that would inhibit them from succeeding well in the November midterm elections. Many of these issues tend to follow several mantra's that Republican's themselves fail to follow, such as, limited government or fiscal responsibility. What should Republican's look out for and keep an eye on? Specifically, they should look for and reinforce a small wall against the Democratic push for more expansive programs about "rebuilding and refortifying" the infrastructure or any works that may try attempt to recover an economy that is faltering. Another major problem that Republican's should watch is the classic mantra of "they will give breaks to the rich" from Democrats. Yes, while a majority of tax breaks are geared towards a greater group of upper middle class to upper class, the major theme that Republican's must harp is the middle class. They must also push for the "church" to give back to its community. Prosperity comes from a dual program of community outreach and extensions of tax cuts and reform for middle class families. Another pitfall of the Republican party may be the inclusion and exclusion of the Tea Party movement. (However, it is probable that the Tea Party may not be the best decision for either group.) One more problem is that the Republican leaders, may decide to foment and insulate their power, which would do no good for their continuance as a party or a probable leader in political policies that could better the country.

Conclusively, the Republican Party will most likely take the House of Representatives, yet it is improbable nor likely that they shall recapture the Senate. It would be a drastic miracle for the Republican Party to collectively take control of Congress like the 1994 Revolution. It would be more probable for a divided government by chamber, rather than a division by branch of government. The Democratic Party itself needs to do several fold, repeal the inflated and egregious health care law, that now is reported to be an account busting program than its proposed reductive program, they must also push a reform of tax codes that are simplified and a compromise from the selected few who push for the Fair Tax Plan. The Tea Party Movement must do several things: (1) they must remove all rhetoric that will impede their philosophy,(2) remove all of the candidates that exacerbate and reiterate mantra's that are consistent with Antebellum politics, and (3) they must make sure that the people running the movement are not a part of any philosophical or political fringe, such as "conservatives" (which promulgate a return to Colonization era) or reactionist ideology.