May is the primary season and it is where many of the Republican party hopefuls will attempt to attain the magic number for the Republican National Convention nomination (see CNN 2008 Election Delegate Count). While all of these statistics are thrilling, the major issue here for Republicans, is the leading candidates. Following are my classifications of who can win the nomination, who cannot, and the who could if they run.
This is the list of those running: Mitt Romney, Michelle Bachman, John Huntsman, Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Gary Johnson.
So let's begin:
The Losers
- Ron Paul: with a strategic plan for being the absolute favorite of stark libertarians and a rising glory with the Tea Party Movement (TPM), this man has truth behind him. With his son Dr. Rand Paul (R-KY) as a freshman Senator, he could sweep something in that state, yet party establishment dominated another TPM favorite and he was defeated. Like this motif, Ron Paul will undoubtedly fail at getting the nomination. His repertoire is extensive, but does it compete with the more social conservatives? No, his leanings to social liberalism will give him due pressure from such elements and will prevent him from solidifying the TPM voters.
- Herman Cain: as a businessman, he knows very little on public policy and political underpinnings. Much like his other businessman counterpart who "officially" decided to not go for a bid--Donald Trump--he will not garner much more that 10 minutes of political intrigue. While he is a businessman, he could potentially alleviate our economic issues, but yet, it isn't just this. While the economy is the top domestic issue, it won't help him garner more than just "ok so you can run a business....tell me about the foreign relations with the Asian markets and the interest in Iran to Chinese and Russian weapons sales."
- Michele Bachman: A colleague of mine defines the likelihood of her rise as such "[s]he is charismatic, very conservative, and seems to hold sway over Tea Partiers and social conservatives. That’s not likely to be enough to beat Romney though- her numbers aren't high enough. Also, Congresswoman Bachman is seen as polarizing by many on the left (sadly that doesn’t take much these days). She’s a three-term Representative who is largely on the outside of the establishment, which also hurts her." (Continue reading) While his analysis is somewhat respectable, it leaves out the following motives: charisma isn't a good indicator of Party Nomination, being a "very conservative" isn't always a good thing either, it leads to such a small fringe related group of voters. Could she sway the more moderate Republicans such as those like John McCain and or the members of the Log Cabin Republicans who aided Bush-43? Not likely, nor is her likelihood to gain much more popularity. While she would have third place in a recent poll against other contenders if Sarah Palin stays out, she still has so much ground to cover.
- Newt Gingrich: Former glorious member of the House of Reps Speaker, fell from his revere when he could not capitalize on his plan. What does he have to offer this electorate now? Not much, except the adage of lower government, fiscal responsibility, etc, etc. Gingrich has too much personal baggage as well as the mass exodus of his campaign team. In a race against any Republican contender, he would not fare well, just like the others in this category and would lose greatly to President Obama, who under the auspices of the incumbency theory would win again. His woes in his finance exodus also mask his ability to effectively hone his speaking and influence.
- Gary Johnson: Need I say more? There's no plausibility of his campaign ever gaining enough momentum to actually be a promising candidate.
- Rick Santorum: Besides being a Senator in Penn. there is still much ground Santorum would need cover. It is unlikely that his bid, albeit like all the others, will encompass the "true conservative." Santorum has the most probable chance here to exit this column and move into the more glorious column of "Wish I Could Get More Votes."
The Winner's:
- Mitt Romney: This man has the highest rank of my column. Governor Romney probably has more clout among the nation to garner the treasured number of delegate votes at the RNC Convention. His poise in the last election cycle left him with a considerable amount of name recognition, along with his more religious views. While the nation still views Mormans and the people of weird practices, I doubt that it would make an impact. When pitted against Obama, who hasn't shown much of any religious leanings, the Morman could win. Now, some will argue that the "single-payer insurance" deal is going to reduce his likelihood among Republican voters.
- Jon Huntsman: This man has the second highest ran in this column. Mr. Hunstman has a record of proven status from Utah. More so, the candidate has a diplomatic advantage over some of his opponents. A fault in this though is his reported stance on the mandate under a health law much like President Obama's (see here). Now, he has a good command to offer many fiscal responses to the economic and debt fallout and possible impending default. Yet, out of this, will it be enough for his more moderate approach to control a large portion of the primary votes needed? Yes, I do think he could manage it, it would be hard with other more moderate conservatives in the playing field
- Tim Pawlenty: This man has the lowest rank in my winners column. While there is considerable amount of uphill battle Pawlenty would need to accrue to be able to make a statement against larger known candidates. In this respect, Pawlenty may have some small gains for Republican and independent voters. There really isn't enough substantive value to claim that he could lose or win, but because of some his more claims on how to reduce the negative effects of the economic decline and his defense policy projections it would grant him a large score with more hard line Republicans.
